The back-up catcher spot is technically locked up by Jose Molina, guaranteed $2 million, but one cannot tell what to expect from the starting catcher.  Will Posada’s shoulder ever allow him to catch again, and if so, will it allow him to do so by Opening Day?

My guess is that the answer to both is “Yes, as long as he can hit.”   With Teixeira at first and Matsui locked into DH, Posada has nowhere to play but behind the plate and the Yankees have no one else to catch.  Neither side has a choice.  Posada will catch no matter how bad his arm is, as long as he hits like himself.

However, it is possible that Posada will start the season on the DL or his bat can’t make up for his unbearable defense.  Therein lies the battle, which is primarily between Kevin Cash and Francisco Cervelli — and it is possible one of the two makes the squad as the twenty-fifth man wild card if Posada is healthy.

Kevin Cash — a career .184/.248/.285 hitter, one wonders if the Yankees didn’t sign Cash just to make Molina look good.  Cash is reputedly an excellent defensive catcher, but the Yankees cannot settle for that type of offense at any time, let alone in any number of significant at-bats.

There is a silver lining to Cash’s offensive numbers, and that would be in his career average of 3.92 pitchers per plate appearance.  In that category, he is far superior to Molina’s career 3.40 mark.  If he could hit more than .184, that might translate into some walks and a decent on-base percentage.  At the very least, averaging nearly 4 pitches per at-bat helps wear out an opposing pitcher and might make his at-bats more useful than Molina’s.

Cash has the looks of Triple-A insurance to fill the Yankees’ “all glove, no bat” catcher quota in the event Molina suffers an injury.

Francisco Cervelli — Here’s the man you want to put your money on, in the event the Yankees give a healthy number of at-bats to a catcher not named Posada.  Cervelli very well might have been called to duty in 2008 had Johnny Gomes not separated his shoulder in Spring Training.  Cervelli returned from the injury to hit .315/.432/.384 in 73 Double-A at-bats and strike out in 3 out of 5 Major League at-bats.

I saw Cervelli play back in his Staten Island days and had the chance to interview him.  Cervelli works hard, hustles on every play, and truly loves the game.  He is a leader of his pitching staff and on the field.  I think Cervelli migth develop some power eventually, but for now he’s at best, a patient hitter with doubles power.

Compared to Molina and Cash, if Cervelli can post say a .350 on-base percentage in the majors, he’d be a tremendous improvement.  Cervelli is a terrific defensive player with a strong arm, and while he’s not fast by any stretch, he’s athletic and does not clog the basepaths.  Also remember that Cervelli is already on the 40-man roster.  Be prepared to see a lot of Francisco Cervelli if Posada is not ready — perhaps as soon as the start of the season.

Instead, I prepare for baseball season and anticipate the spring training battles in front of Lt. Joe in Tampa.  I will discuss each in a separate post.  The first is in good old centerfield.

As the Yankees leave Joe D and the Mick’s old stomping grounds behind and move across the street, it looks like they’ve left the job of christening the new centerfield to either Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera (or some multi-headed monster consisting of some Johnny Damon and Nick Swisher, too).  After the Great Crosby Bluff, I don’t think anyone was quite sure the Yanks wouldn’t acquire at least Mike Cameron this winter.  But perhaps the Yankees truly feel they have something in one of Cabrera or Gardner.

Melky, despite reports to the contrary, has the leg up going into Spring Training for two interconnected reasons — (1) Cabrera has almost three years of major league experience and (2) he’s out-of-options.  The world seems to have soured on the Melkman, but he will only be 24 next year — younger than Brett Gardner, so his ticket out of town should not be punched just yet.  Melky was awful last year – a huge disappointment after a very promising April in which he hit .299/.370/.494 with 5 home runs.  Unfortunately, he only finished with 8 dingers, meaning he scattered just three across the next five months.

So what happened?  Using the magic of fangraphs.com (which I strongly endorse), we see that Melky’s approach did not change much.  He did not swing at nor make contact with a different percentage of pitches inside or outside the zone.  However, what fangraphs does illustrate is an increase in flyballs, an increase in home runs per flyballs, but also a large increase in infield pop-ups and a decrease in infield hits.  Clearly, the five April home runs was the product of an approach to add more power to Melky’s swing, but one that went horribly wrong.  Instead of hitting the ball on the ground and stealing a few infield hits — a net loss of approximately 15 hits — Melky started popping a lot of balls up for automatic, useless outs — a net loss of another 15 hits.  Melky started sending a few more flyballs over the fence, but it was not worth the loss of 30 base hits.  If Melky had just added 30 singles to his 2008 line, he would have hit about .321/.373/.420.

That and a MetroCard will get Melky on the subway, but he has three strengths over Gardner that he will need to emphasize to claim what is rightfully his: (1) ability to hit for average; (2) potential to hit for some power; (3) arm strength to play all outfield positions.  Melky is not patient, but he can put the ball in play.  He needs to show that he can do that with authority from both sides of the plate — and especially from the right side.  He also needs to show he can hit the gaps, if not the fences.  Finally, it’s possible the Yanks start Damon or Swisher in center and Melky or Gardner may wind up a back-up.  Melky doesn’t need to do much, then, to prove that his arm would make him more valuable than Gardner to fill in anywhere — which may be crucial late in a game with the winning run on second or third.  

What Melky needs to do: hitting about .350 in Spring Training with a handful of doubles and a home run or two would win him the starting job.  Hitting less than that and Gardner falling on his face will land him a back-up role.  ODDS: 30%

Gardner is the challenger and he looks primed to knock off the vulnerable Cabrera.  Gardner has three strengths that may unseat Melky: (1) speed; (2) plate discipline; (3) ability to bunt.  Gardner may be the fastest player in the Majors, if he gets there this year.  That gives him more range in the field and makes him a threat on the bases.  He also has a terrific eye at the plate and free passes, with his speed, will really hurt the competition.  Finally, Gardner can bunt, opening up a wide range of tactical plays.  Girardi is a disciple of Don Zimmer, and though he did not employ many suicide squeezes in 2008, he also expressed dismay that no one on the team knew how to bunt.

What Gardner needs to do:  look unstoppable on the base paths, make highlight reel plays in centerfield, and hit enough so he doesn’t look overmatched to win the starting job.  There’s likely no booby prize as the back-up for Gardner, because the organization would lose Cabrera entirely.  ODDS: 34%

Dark Horse Candidates: 

Johnny Damon — The Yankees forced Damon out of centerfield two years ago, when they had roughly as much confidence in Melky Cabrera as a hitter as they do today.  All Damon did was get older in that time.  He ain’t getting his job back now.  ODDS: 1%

Nick Swisher — It didn’t work out too well for the ChiSox, but Swisher is a better centerfielder than Bobby Abreu is a rightfielder.  The Yankees may take the offense and run, letting Cabrera take over late in games (perhaps shifting Swisher to left, to improve the overall arm strength of the outfield).  ODDS: 20%

Andruw Jones — The man who’s too cool to spell his name correctly and too out of shape to keep his job.  He’s still a free agent and it seems like no one, not even the Braves, will offer him more than a minor league contract.  With a wide open job in NY, a minor league contract to come compete with Melky and Gardner may be the most appealing option – and what better stage to resurrect your career and land a large sum of money next year (if he has anything left).  Though he was atrocious offensively last year, Jones was still terrific defensively.  It is certainly worth a gamble, but it is not clear if the Yankees have any interest in bringing Jones in for a look-see.  That it has not happened yet may only mean Scott Boras is not yet ready to settle for a minor league deal — or is more focused on helping Manny Ramirez save face.  ODDS: 10%.

Yasser Gomez — This Cuban defector is allegedly a “speedy centerfielder” and allegedly “28 years old.”  Whether he is that speedy, young, or any better than what the Yankees have is yet to be determined, but he must be somewhere on the Yankees radar since he plays the position.  If he’s not looking for a major league contract, the Yanks may bring him to Spring Training.  ODDS: 5%

That would be if the No. 46 jersey gets hung up in mothballs again – or unceremoniously dusted off for someone like Darrell May.  (On a side note: isn’t it ironic that May’s partner-in-crime in 2005, Tim Redding, who lasted only one inning with the Yankees before getting run out of New York on a rail, was lured back by the Mets for a cool $2.5 million?  I wonder if the rail is part of the buy-out…)

The Yankees have low-balled the loveable Andy Pettitte all off-season with a take-it-or-leave-it $10 million offer.  Meanwhile, comparable pitchers such as AJ Burnett ($16.5 million) and Derek Lowe ($15 million) pull in significantly more on long-term deals.

I understand the Yankees having a “time to show us some love” attitude after Pettitte took their money last year without revealing he took HGH.  But for the Yankees to insist through the media that Pettitte only a fifth starter and the $10 million is a charitable offer is a farce.

For your consideration, please review the following pitcher’s statistics:

Burnett: 18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231K in 221.3 IP

Pettitte: 14-14, 4.54 ERA, 154 K in 204 IP

Lowe: 14-11, 3.24 ERA, 147 K in 211 IP

The $5 million question is: where is the $5 million discrepancy?

Furthermore, fangraphs.com just released its fair market value for pitchers, based on statistics that neutralize the impact of a pitcher’s team (like, for instance, the Yankees’ atrocious defense).  By their calculations, Andy Pettitte was worth $21.7 million last year, but was only paid $16 million.  Likewise, in 2007, Pettitte was worth $24.4 million despite only a $16 million salary.

Whether you agree with those dollar figures or not, the Yankees got their money’s worth from Pettitte.

If the Yankees want to drive a hard bargain and get a hometown discount, fine, and yes, they can probably get by without Pettitte now, but it will be sad to see Pettitte leave a second time over money.  I don’t blame Pettitte.  This is on the Yankees, who are happy to make strangers millionaires but suddenly got cheap with one of their own again.  Why the Yankees have such a love-hate relationship with all of their homegrown players other than Jeter and Rivera, I’ll never know.

Sink Shavings:

The other hot item on the docket: as the Yankees trim the payroll, they are apparently shopping Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher.  Moving either will trim about $5 million off the payroll — apparently that now matters to the Yankees.  When push comes to shove, Swisher who is a couple years younger, a better defender at more positions, and is locked up for three-years, is probably the one to keep.  I believe the Yankees are better off keeping all their outfielders, and playing Swisher or Damon in center until the inevitable injury comes, but the budget’s the budget, and if the Yanks don’t got the dough, one of them’s got to go.

So what do the Yankees get for them?

In my opinion, if the Yankees are going to trade one of their young outfielders, they need an even younger, cheaper outfielder with some upside in return (and preferably one who can play centerfield).  I think the Yanks best trade partner is Washington, which is overloaded with outfielders.  (Why they’d want another corner outfielder is beyond me, but allegedly they are hot for Nady or Swisher and could use either at first-base.)

Washington also conveniently has two young, cheap outfielders with upside who are capable of playing centerfield — Lastings Milledge (former Met) and Elijah Dukes (former Ray).  Dukes is by far the preferred player — he is coming off a season where he hit .264/.386/.478, albeit in 81 games.  Dukes also played a strong right field.  Washington plans for him to compete in center next season with Milledge, so Dukes can play center, but if he can’t cut it, the Yanks can move him to a corner in 2010.

Milledge is less preferable, but he still has upside and could be worth it in exchange for Nady’s walk-year.  According to UZR, Milledge is not a good centerfielder, and hit only .268/.330/.402 – about league average for centerfield.  Milledge, however, does see a lot of pitches, about 3.9 per plate appearance, stole 24 bases last year, and hit 14 home runs.  He has potential at only 24, and if nothing else, has proven to be average offensively for centerfield, and the Yankees could use a guaranteed league average centerfielder.

The problem is that both have attitude problems, which is how Washington acquired both for a song (allegedly, the same song).  Dukes infamously attacked a minor league umpire; Milledge high-fived a fan after a home run.  With strong upside from both and role models like Jeter, A-Rod, and now Sabathia and Teixeira in the clubhouse, either player should stay in line with the Yankees.  It’s about time the Yankees took such a risk.

They should target Dukes first, and Milledge second; and they should try to deal Nady first (in his walk year) and Swisher second.  It would be better to have two outfielders under contract in 2010 (Swisher and Dukes/Milledge) rather than just Dukes/Milledge.  I think straight up Nady-for-Milledge or Swisher-for-Dukes deals might work, though I may be inclined to try Nady plus a young pitcher for Dukes first.

To be honest, I’m pulled in both directions on this one.  I noted in a previous post that I didn’t think the Yankees should have signed Teixeira and I still don’t.  For the next eight years, the Yankees owe $50 million to their corner infielders, who will be 36 (Tex) and 40 (A-Rod).  If they stay around a $200 million payroll, that’s 25% percent of their payroll – and the Yankees seem inclined to eventually reduce that payroll to some degree, increasing that percentage.  That doesn’t even include the old news deals given to CC and AJ.

On the positive side, it’s always nice to swoop in and steal a player that the Red Sox really wanted.  Contreras, A-Rod, Pavano, Damon.  Of course, the Red Sox won a couple of those competitions: Schilling, Beckett.  You look over that list and wonder, did the Yankees really win on any of those triumphs?

Another positive is that it seems that Tex wanted to be a Yankee – or at least, he hated the Red Sox.  It’s nice to have a now franchise player embrace the franchise.  It’s also lovely that Tex grew up a Mattingly-fan, like every Yankee fan who watched the Hitman play, and more importantly than hitting like a vintage Don, he fields like him, too.  I love a good first baseman (my own position) and find that it’s a far more important defensive position than many believe it to be.

Some other positives I’ve discovered: Tex comes from a military background so might fit in extremely well with Sgt. Girardi; Tex has improved as a hitter every year and cut down his strikeouts to the point that he walked more than he struck out this year; and Tex hits exceptionally well in the clutch and therefore may not be as similar to A-Rod as I have assumed.

Still, the Yankees locked up a first baseman for eight-years at top dollar and I can’t help thinking it’s a mistake.  How does Teixeira help the Yankees get younger and more athletic?  In a year, he’ll be 30.  Teixeira stole 13 bases in…8 seasons.

Sure, he does the same thing that Manny would have done in that regard — allow the Yankees to go with Melky Cabrera or, more likely, Brett Gardner in centerfield.  And he also improves the defense, which Manny would not have done.  However, he’ll also hang around for five years longer than Manny would have, by which time he may have lost his usefulness.

The two rationales for this signing that I have heard are: (1) the Yankees missed out on Carlos Beltran and won’t make the same mistake again; and (2) the Yankees saw the coming 2009 free agent class and didn’t like it.  And I disagree with both of them.

First of all, Tex is not Beltran.  Not only did Beltran sign a shorter, cheaper contract and offer the Yankees a discount because he badly wanted to play for them, but Carlos Beltran is a far more valuable player than Tex.  Beltran doesn’t hit as much as Tex, but relative to his position, Beltran is more above-average in centerfield than Tex is at first base.  But more importantly, centerfield, despite my allegiance to first base, is a far more important defensive position.  Beltran is the best defensive centerfielder in the game.  Furthermore, Beltran averages 30 stolen bases a year.  He’s a true five-tool talent, he wanted to be a Yankee, and he truly was both young (27 at the time) and athletic.  The similarities between Tex and Beltran end at them being switch-hitters who happen to be both above-average hitters and fielders at their respective positions, but the necessity of each player is vastly different.

Second of all, yes, the 2010 free agent class sucks, unless you truly believe in Matt Holliday, which I don’t.  I noted the same thing in advocating that the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez — because they’ll lose their entire outfield and there are no clear free agent replacements.  Sure, I think the money is better spent on Tex now than Holliday later, but I think it’s even better spent on a short term deal for Ramirez.  Whether Manny is your DH in 2010 with Swisher at first, or Tex is at first with Swisher in a corner outfield spot, the Yankees still have three holes of either the entire outfield or the DH.  In a best case scenario, two of Cabrera, Gardner, and Austin Jackson prove that they’re suitable starting outfielders — though I don’t think any of them will hit enough to be a corner outfielder so the Yanks will be in the market for a corner outfielder next year regardless.

I suppose there was no perfect answer.  For the next three years, Tex fits their need about as well as Manny, and for intangible reasons, perhaps better.  My concern was and is the five years after that three year period.  Tex should contribute until about the end of his contract, perhaps beginning to decline the last two years — at least, in a best case scenario where he stays completely or mostly healthy.  If it helps the Yankees win a World Series, it doesn’t matter.  But I can’t help thinking that Manny would have helped the goal of winning a World Series this year or the next three more than Teixeira.  We shall see.

SINK SHAVINGS:

* Boston will have its revenge on the Yankees, but it will be a dish best served cold when the Sox sign Albert Pujols after 2011.  Tex is a good player, but Albert Pujols is the best player in the game.  He is Manny Ramirez with drive, discipline, and a glove.  And the Sox have plenty of internal talent to carry them through until then.

* Is the new most important metric for the Yankees not on-base percentage (OBP), but pitches per plate appearance (PPA)?    In a lesser deal, the Yankees inked Kevin Cash from the Red Sox as the third-string catcher, in case Posada is not ready to catch at the beginning of the year.  Cash has hit an unimpressive .184/.248/.285 in his career — but he sees an average of 3.92 PPA (for reference, 4 PPA is exceptional).  While it may not show up in their OBP, a high PPA is indicative of a guy who grinds out at-bats on a consistent basis.  And if every batter averages about 4 PPA, a pitcher reaches his pitch count limit pretty quickly – it takes 36 pitches to get through the line-up once and will reach 100 before getting through the line-up three times entirely.  In addition to Cash, the Yanks already traded for Nick Swisher (4.25 career PPA), were rumored to have interest in Mike Cameron (4.24 PPA) and Nick Punto (3.91 career PPA), and obviously signed Mark Teixeira (3.87 career PPA).  If that’s the case, Brett Gardner (3.88 PPA in 2008) likely has the inside track on centerfield over Melky Cabrera (3.65 career PPA).

“Don’t be misled by his .305/.357/.501 line in 2008, with 25 home runs and 97 RBI!” they warn. “He only hit .268/.320/.474 as a Yankee and that’s more like what you’ll get.”

Now, it’s true that Nady’s career average is .280/.335/.458 and that Nady set a career high of 39 walks in 2008.  His on-base percentage will never sniff Bobby Abreu’s.

However, these commentators seem to ignore the fact that Nady spent a significant portion of his career as a part-time platoon player.  Nady did not get 400+ at-bats until he became a Met in 2006, at age 27.  This would also coincide with Nady coming into his prime years — a period roughly from age 27 to 33.

Since becoming a regular, Nady’s career average is .289/.349/.481 — which is much closer to his cumulative 2008 line.  In fact, Nady has gotten better each year since getting regular at-bats and there is no reason not to believe he is a late bloomer, and might be a similar pick-up for these 2009 Yankees as Paul O’Neill once was.

When the Yankees acquired Paul O’Neill, he just finished his age 29 season (just as Nady has just finished his), and sported a career average at that point of .259/.355/.431.  Once again, Nady’s career average at this point is .280/.335/.458.

Now, O’Neill was a different player than Nady.  O’Neill set a career high in walks his age 29 season with 77 — nearly double Nady’s career high.  However, at the same point in their careers, O’Neill had a .786 OPS and Nady has a .793 OPS.  O’Neill was coming off an even worse season, hitting .246/.346/.373 in his last year in Cincinatti.

Over the next four seasons, O’Neill hit .315/.420/.520, for an OPS of .940.

Nady will never sniff a .420 on-base percentage…unless he hits near .400 for a season.  However, what explains the 50 point increase in O’Neil’s batting average, or the 90 point increase in his slugging percentage?

Is it not possible that Nady is just about to hit his stride, and is capable, at least for approximately three more seasons, or providing a line similar to his average as a regular of about .290/.350/.480?  I see no reason for this not to be the case.

One argument may be that Nady was favored by Pittsburgh’s stadium, since he hit above his career averages in the second-half of 2006, all of 2007, and the first half of 2008 when he was a Pirate.  However, in his career, Nady has only hit .285/.335/.430 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.  So it was not home park advantage benefitting Nady during this time.  In fact,  he hit .281/.327/.506 away from Pittsburgh in 2007, and .314/.373/.528 on the road in 2008.

I think the most likely solution is that Nady, with regular playing time and coming into his prime, has developed into a very good ballplayer.  Nady will likely never be a superstar, but he’s a gritty player who will be above-average hitter for the Yankees and exceed his current career averages.

I must say that I respectfully disagree with the push for Mark Teixeira, who will claim a ten-year, $200 million contract, or thereabouts, from Boston or LA.  I have two reasons: Alex Rodriguez and Todd Helton.

The Yankees made the mistake of signing Alex Rodriguez through age 42 last year with a ten-year, $300 million contract (including his home run title bonuses).  The Yankees hope that A-Rod will continue to be productive through that point and reach the 800 home run plateau — however, they should be under no delusion that A-Rod will still be playing third base at that point.  A-Rod is not a truly great third baseman as it is, and he will likely need to move to first-base or DH for the second half of his contract.  Unlike other supposed future first basemen, like Jeter or Posada, A-Rod actually hits enough (and hopefully will still hit enough) to be an above-average first baseman.

My other reason is Todd Helton.  His contract has been an albatross for the Rockies due to back problems.  Helton was an elite hitter and a gold glove first baseman — much like Teixeira.  When injury reared its ugly head though, Helton had no where to move where his limitations on offense and defense would not hurt as much.  True, the Yankees have the luxury of the DH, but should the Yankees really sign another player for $20 million a pop with the fall back of him splitting the DH role with any or all of A-Rod, Jeter and Posada four or five years down the road?

While I disagree with signing Teixeira, I do agree that the Yankees should not be short-sighted about their offensive deficiencies.  I think the Yankees are correct that their offense is not as bad as it appeared this year, but it is not the potential 1000-run juggernaut it was 2004 through 2007 either.  The Yankees are right to expect more from Robinson Cano, improvement with a returning Jorge Posada (even if he only catches half the games) and Hideki Matsui, and some hope of improved offensive production from centerfield.  Yet, the naysayers are also correct that the Yanks can expect a decline in performance from right field and first base with the loss of Abreu and Giambi (although, having brought those players back was no guarantee that performance would not decline anyway).    Furthermore, it is up in the air as to whether Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter will improve on sub-par seasons, stay the same, or continue to decline.

The Yankees are trying to address this concern by trading Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa for Mike Cameron, hoping for some certainty in their centerfield production.  Cameron is a decent player — a good clubhouse presence who takes some pitches, swings and misses at many more, and stumbles into about 20 home runs a season.  Cameron hit .243/.331/.477 last year for Milwaukee — Melky Cabrera hit .249/.301/.341.  The Yankees will get more power from Cameron and a couple more walks, but at age 37, he could get worse and it is not a far fall to Cabrera’s levels — and the 24-year-old Cabrera could improve.  Cameron does hit lefties better, and a platoon situation with him and Gardner or Damon provides the Yanks with some certainty of average production.

The bigger problem is the Yankees’ outfield long-term.  Cameron is a one-year fix, and a Damon-Cameron-Nady outfield does not scare anybody.  If the Yankees trade Cabrera for Cameron, the only outfielders under team control for 2010 are Brett Gardner and Austin Jackson, who despite being pencilled in as the Yanks’ center fielder of the future come 2010, still has not played in Triple-A (remember also, that this time last year, Jose Tabata was the Yanks’ right fielder of the future by around the same point and the year before that, Cabrera was the center fielder of the future).  They’ll have about $31 million coming off the books in outfielders alone, but the only quality free agent is Matt Holliday, and it will be interesting to see how he hits for Oakland this year and if he is really the talent he appeared in Colorado.  The Yankees also have the versatile Nick Swisher, but that would also create a gap again at first-base with no obvious free agent solution or minor leaguer tagged as first baseman of the future.

Unless the Yankees plan to get creative and make some daring requests to improve the defense and create some flexibility — Posada to first base?  Jeter to left field?  – the Yankees are likely looking at filling holes in left field, center field, right field or alternatively first-base, and designated hitter when Matsui leaves.  Given that, and the very real likelihood that at best, the Yanks will fill these holes with average production, (but hopefully above-average defenders) the Yankees should be looking long and hard at Manny Ramirez.

Do the Yankees need another hitter without a position?  In 2010, they might, especially if that player has the ability to play a corner outfield spot, at least in name only (a la a much, much better Ruben Sierra).  Ramirez is the kind of the hitter the Yankees will desperately need in 2010 and 2011, even if he doesn’t have a clear spot in 2009.

Why Ramirez instead of the cheaper and younger Adam Dunn?  Ramirez may be a head case, but he’s a far better hitter than Dunn.  Sure, strikeouts don’t mean much, but it shows that a player cannot handle power stuff.  Dunn hits .219/.384/.471 against power pitchers – the kind you face in the play-offs.  Ramirez hits .286/.388/.497.  Sure, the OPS is not much different, but the amount of hits (or strikeouts, however you want to look at it) making up for the 70-point difference in batting average win ball games in the postseason.  In a short series, you don’t have time for numbers to balance out.  You take the 28% chance Ramirez will get a hit , than the 21% chance Dunn will.

The Yankees paid the sticker price and bagged the two best pitchers on the free-agent market (*Disclaimer: that does not necessarily mean much — see Carl Pavano after 2004 and Gil Meche after 2006).  However, even given my disclaimer, the Yankees did succeed in improving their rotation.  Sure, Sabathia is the size of two starting pitchers and Burnett has failed to stay on the mound when there wasn’t a pay-day involved, but there is no doubt that the Yankees added two power pitchers with swing and miss stuff.

The critics are already zinging the Yanks, claiming that they are abandoning their youth movement in light of missing the play-offs.  However, consider the following:  

(1) The Yankees could have spent nearly as much to extend Johan Santana last year and also traded Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy – giving up two 21-year-olds for a 29-year-old pitcher and suffering a net loss of  one starting pitcher.  Instead, the Yankees waited and signed Sabathia for a little more, keeping the now 22-year-olds and gaining one starting pitcher.  Now should Sabathia or more likely Burnett go Carl Pavano on the Yankees, they have Hughes and Kennedy as understudies.

(2) Considering the very likely possibility that Sabathia utilizes his opt-out, the only pitchers under the Yankees’ control after 2011 at this point are Burnett, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy.  Now the youngsters can build up their innings in the minors so there’ll be no need for switches to the bullpen or skipped starts – while Hughes and Kennedy continue to become more than two-pitch pitchers (maybe Hughes can teach Kennedy his curve, and Kennedy can teach the change-up.)

(3) Should the Yankees fail to re-sign Andy Pettitte, the oldest member of their rotation is the 31-year-old Burnett.  The average age of their rotation, assuming Hughes as the fifth starter, is 26.6.

Unlike recent years, the starting rotation should never be a problem again.

The Yankees had needed an offensive upgrade for sometime, but after 2003 their rotation was taking a major hit.  Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and David Wells hit free agency, with Clemens retiring and the Yanks’ wanting no part of Wells any longer.  What was left were much-heralded but not terrific pitchers — Mike Mussina, Jeff Weaver, and Jose Contreras.

We all know what happened — Pettitte felt slighted and signed with the Astros for three years, Clemens unretired to join him, the Yanks traded for Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown instead, Steinbrenner negotiated a three-year deal with Gary Sheffield, and the Yanks swung a blockbuster trade for Alex Rodriguez.  The Yanks then lost a 3-0 advantage over the Red Sox in the ALCS and never moved out of the first-round after that.

I go back to that off-season and wonder, how would things have been different if Brian Cashman were in complete control of that team and if Andy Pettitte had re-signed with the Yankees.  The two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand — the Yankees wanted Pettitte back, but were weary of his elbow which required surgery the next season.  However, this is how, I think, the Yankees would have been constructed from 2003 to 2008, if Pettitte returned and Cashman was in control – and what might have happened assuming exactly the same results but with different teams:

2004 — With Pettitte back on board, the Yankees rotation needed one more piece and Cashman got his top target, Javier Vazquez, in exchange for, primarily, Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera.  They also have a rehabbing Jon Lieber, whom Cashman picked up on the sly in 2003.  Jeff Weaver still has questions about being a head case, but with Pettitte aboard, Cashman cannot justify trading a young pitcher for the 38-year-old Kevin Brown.  Without Steinbrenners’ interfering, Cashman signs fellow former Expo and then-27-year-old Vladimir Guerrero.  When Aaron Boone tears his ACL playing unauthorized hoops, Cashman pulls the trigger on Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez.  The 2004 Yankees, at the beginning of the season, looks like:

C – Jorge Posada; 1B – Tony Clark; 2B – Enrique Wilson/Miguel Cairo; 3B – Alex Rodriguez; SS – Derek Jeter; LF – Hideki Matsui; CF – Bernie Williams; RF – Vladimir Guerrero; DH – Jason Giambi/Ruben Sierra.

Their rotation looks like: Andy Pettitte; Mike Mussina; Jon Lieber; Javier Vazquez; Jeff Weaver/Jose Contreras.

Pettitte only pitches 88 innings because he blows out his elbow.  Lieber recovers strongly from Tommy John surgery.  Vazquez has an All-Star first-half but falters in the second half.  Weaver has a solid, if unspectacular season, winning 15 games.  Contreras pitches out of the bullpen until Pettitte goes down.  Potentially, Roger Clemens, feeling the itch to play, re-signs with the Yankees when Pettitte goes down.  The Yankees may also pick-up Orlando Hernandez mid-season again.  Even without reinforcements, the Yanks have enough depth to sport a five-man rotation and make the play-offs.  Though Vazquez unfairly gets the blame for the ALCS Game 7 loss for giving up the Johnny Damon grand slam, with no Kevin Brown to start Game 7, the Yankees stand a chance.  However, without his six brilliant innings in the ALDS, the Yankees may never have gotten to that point.  The Yankees probably lose in any round due to suspect starting pitching.

2005: With Pettitte returning from elbow surgery and without a grand slam hovering over Vazquez’s head, the Yankees’ rotation is mainly set.  Cashman again misjudges the market and lets Lieber sign with Philadelphia.  Instead, he signs Carl Pavano, still trying to get the rotation younger for the future.  With no need for a lefty ace, the Yankees don’t trade for Randy Johnson.  Instead, they spend their $16 million to sign Carlos Beltran and replace the aging Bernie Williams.  With Cano on the horizon, Cashman waits on Miguel Cairo and signs him cheaply for one-year – avoiding the Tony Womack fiasco.  He also signs Tino Martinez to play first-base.

C  - Posada; 1B – Martinez; 2B – Cairo/Cano; 3B – Rodriguez; SS – Jeter; LF – Matsui; CF – Beltran; RF – Guerrero; DH – Williams/Giambi.

SP – Mussina; Pavano; Pettitte; Vazquez; Weaver/Contreras.

Beltran has a sub-par season, but is an improvement over Williams and solidifies center field and the outfield defense.  Pettitte returns from elbow surgery and has the best season of his career.  Vazquez is worse than Randy Johnson would have been, but still average and turns in 200 innings and 200 strikeouts.  Weaver is again average; Contreras has a terrific season and takes over that spot – both vast improvements over Jaret Wright.  Pavano has shoulder fatigue mid-season and is replaced by Weaver or Chien-Ming Wang.  The Yankees are the deepest team in the league and easily make the play-offs and cruise to the World Series.  It is unclear who they would play — Houston is not in the play-offs without Pettitte and Clemens.

2006: 

Tino Martinez retires.  With a resurgent Giambi and a terrific line-up, the Yankees decide to go with Andy Phillips at first-base.  Jeff Weaver becomes a free agent.  The Yanks may stand still, though that’s not their style.  They re-sign Hideki Matsui.  I suggest the Yanks continue to try to get their shut-down ace of the future by replacing Weaver with A.J. Burnett.

C: Posada; 1B: Phillips; 2B: Cano; 3B: Rodriguez; SS: Jeter; LF: Matsui; CF: Beltran; RF: Guerrero; DH: Giambi.

SP: Pettitte; Mussina; Vazquez; Contreras; Wang/Burnett.

Vazquez pitches better than Randy Johnson in his final season in NY.  Pettitte is an improvement over Jaret Wright and pitches more.  Wang replaces Burnett when he is injured, together a vast improvement over Shawn Chacon and Cory Lidle.  Beltran has a terrific season, a vast improvement over Johnny Damon.  When Matsui gets hurt, Melky Cabrera fills in admirably – but the Yankees sensing title, a cheap deal, and an improved outfield for two or three years, picks up Bobby Abreu from the Phillies to play left field.  The Yanks storm to a World Series title.

2007: Contreras, Pettitte, and Mussina are free agents.  With Burnett and Pavano injured, the Yanks resign the workhorses Pettitte and Mussina.  With Abreu in the fold and no obvious replacement for first-base, the Yankees largely stand pat as World Series Champions.

C: Posada; 1B: Giambi; 2B: Cano; 3B: Rodriguez; SS: Jeter; LF: Abreu; CF: Beltran; RF: Guerrero; DH: Matsui.

SP: Pettitte; Mussina; Vazquez; Burnett; Wang.

With tremendous seasons by Posada and A-Rod in addition to vastly improved performance from Abreu, Beltran, and Guerrero over Damon, Cabrera, and Abreu, the Yanks record a 1000 run season and storm back into the play-offs.  Vazquez has a breakout season and is a vast improvement over Roger Clemens.  Hughes and Ian Kennedy fill in for Burnett when hurt and Mussina when ineffective.  Burnett is healthy for the play-offs and the Yankees win the World Series again.  

2008: The drama!  Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract.  Posada and Rivera hit free agency.  The Mini Bosses take over.  They re-sign Posada and Rivera.  Boasting a line-up that just scored 1000 runs, the Yankees stand by their promise and refuse to re-sign Rodriguez.  He winds up signing an 8-year, $26M per year contract with the Angels. With no first-round knockouts and a couple more World Series titles, Joe Torre gets a contract extension.  With money to spend and with a surplus of young arms, the Yankees trade Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana.  They pick up Abreu’s option.  The Yankees consider Mike Lowell, but he re-signs with the Red Sox.  The Yanks intend to compete on the strength of their outfield offense and a powerhouse rotation, and stick Wilson Betemit at third-base.

C: Posada/Molina; 1B: Giambi; 2B: Cano; 3B: Betemit; SS: Jeter; LF: Abreu; CF: Beltran; RF: Guerrero; DH: Matsui.

SP: Santana; Burnett; Pettitte; Mussina; Wang/Chamberlain.

The outfield improvement compensates for the loss of A-Rod, but not the fall off when the Yankees lose Posada and Cano turns in an unproductive season.  The Yankees pick-up Casey Blake at the trade deadline to fill in at third-base and he is average.  However, Santana vastly improves their rotation, and with strong seasons from Burnett and Mussina, the Yankees reach the play-offs again.  With a powerhouse rotation, they win the Series again.

What a difference, huh?

The only problem is that this off-season would be a cross-roads again.  The Yankees would come off of three World Series Championships.  They have a rotation of Santana, Wang, and Chamberlain.  However, Burnett may opt out of his deal.  Mussina retires.  Pettitte, Giambi, Abreu and Blake hit free agency.  Posada was hurt all year.  The Yankees already traded Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Melky Cabrera.

For example, one of the biggest stories recently is that CC “I’m too cool for punctuation” Sabathia has not yet accepted the Yankees’ record 6-year, $140 million offer and therefore he must not want to be a Yankee and if he winds up accepting, he’s only doing it for the money and it will be a miserable relationship for six years.  No matter where the story line goes, there will be high drama.  

The NY media needs to brush up on its understanding of business.  A team’s first bid is never the highest amount of money it will pay.  Sure, $140 million is an historic amount of dough, but if that’s the opening bid, CC must figure the Yanks must be willing to go to $150 or $160 million.  If he can muster a $120-$130 million offer from one of his “preferred” West Coast teams, he could squeeze a few million more out of the Yankees.

The same goes for Andy Pettitte, who has said all year he only wants to pitch for the Yankees but has balked at the Yanks’ reduced offer of one year, $10 million – a$6 million pay cut.  Again, the first offer is seldom the highest.  The Yankees’ are likely aiming for a salary around what Mike Mussina made in his two-year extension — $11 million (However, Mussina also collected a $1.5 million buy out of his 2007 option and a $1 million signing bonus — so he made about $13.5 million in the first-year of his deal).  Pettitte and his agents probably want a deal as close to $16 million as possible.  The hesitation does not mean Pettitte won’t be back.  It means neither side wants to settle for $13 million until they figure out what’s going on with Sabathia.

There is no question Sabathia is the best pitcher on the market.  He’s only 27, a power pitcher with a Cy Young Award who routinely pitches 200 innings a year.  Beyond Sabathia, much is made of AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe, but Pettitte belongs in that group as well.  Burnett is a 31-year-old power pitcher who is always hurt.  He will likely make $15 million a year on a multi-year deal.  Lowe is a 35-year-old workhorse, who is not overpowering but has terrific make-up and a great postseason record, who is looking for $15 to $18 million a year on a multi-year deal.

Compare that with Pettitte,a 36-year-old workhorse, who is not overpowering but has terrific make-up and a great postseason record, who wants a one-year deal at or close to his $16 million salary last year.

The Yankees are aware of this, but they’re trying to get a discount now.  They know the game will change once Sabathia makes a decision.  If Sabathia signs with the Yankees, their need for Pettitte greatly diminishes and he likely agrees to a salary between $11 and $13 million.  If Sabathia snubs the Yankees, the Yanks desperately move on to the second tier and will no doubt realize that Pettitte is in the same class as Lowe and Burnett and at about $16 million for one year, is a bargain.  Pettitte will sign for about $14 to $15 million.

My guess for both players: Sabathia signs with the Yanks when they increase their offer to an even $24 million a year — $144 million over six years.  Pettitte signs a save-face contract with the Yanks for one year at $13 million, with a $13 million club option for 2010 or a $3 million buy-out.  Pettitte is guaranteed $16 million, and the Yanks get an option for another year at a reasonable price.

McCain is making the mistake he made last summer — running as something he’s not and limiting his appeal.  Take away McCain’s maverick streaks (sorry, breaking with Bush on energy isn’t enough) and he’s just another wrinkled Republican — and a generic Dem thumps a wrinkled Republican.

Luckily, neither candidate is generic.   The Democrats chose a candidate with wide appeal, but enough warts (inexperience, questionable associations, liberal voting record) to make those on the fence think twice.  That second thought has been enough to keep McCain, the war-hero with a history of bipartisan accomplishments, close.

Unfortunately, in wooing the Republican base, McCain has turned into the generic Republican, allowing the “Bush Third Term” accusation to stick.  Despite Obama’s thundering crowds, this election is not about him.  It’s a referendum on Bush.  As long as Obama can frame McCain as “Bush III”, Obama wins as the only alternative. 

McCain has to accept this reality and stop being afraid of losing the 30% that favors Bush.  The odds are these harcore party loyalists will vote for McCain regardless because he has an (R) after his name.  He has to reframe the election as a choice between two anti-Bush candidates to stand a chance.  Bear with me because this is not as impossible as it sounds.  Remember that Dubya was elected TWICE and the country has been split 50-50 the entire decade.  If 70% of the country disagrees with Bush’s positions, how could this have happened?

It couldn’t.  Half the country still agrees with Bush’s positions, even though nearly three-quarters despise the man.  There is McCain’s opening.

Obama’s rhetoric follows the faulty logic that America disapproves of Bush’s presidency and McCain shares many of Bush’s positions, therefore America will disapprove of a McCain presidency.  But that doesn’t follow.  What the country disapproves of is Bush’s one-sided agenda that exacerbated partisanship, his bungling of a voluntary war, his mismanagement of the budget, and his administration’s numerous scandals and shady dealings.

McCain has to convince people that he will be a better President than Bush.  He needs to emphasize his clashes with Bush, with the Republican Party, his efforts towards bipartisanship, and his experience with national office and international affairs.

McCain needs to make this argument quickly.  Want to steal Obamamania’s headlines?  Hold a rally and slam Bush.   He needs to point out Bush’s dirty campaigning in 2000 and the clashes the two had the last 8 years.  He needs to take credit for the policies that Bush stole — the surge, off-shore drilling — but make it clear that these positive developments were McCain policies, not Bush policies.

Then he needs to tell people how he will be a different kind of President– a bipartisan leader that seeks joint solutions and listens to various opinions.   Point out that Bush’s worst offenses were because he had no foreign policy experience and only his word that he’d work in a bipartisan fashion when he was elected — and don’t forget to remind voters that Obama is very similar.  Use recent events like the high-level negotiations with Iran or the time “horizons” with Iraq to show that Obama represents a continuation of naive Bush foreign policies.

Then he needs to revive and accent his maverick tendencies.  If the GOP is fighting McCain on the party platform, let the GOP keep its platform and run contrary to it.  Make it clear he has no interest in changing the Republican party, but refuse to be boxed in.  He’s running as John McCain, not a Republican.

Then McCain should reveal his cabinet and make risky, dramatic selections.  Joe Lieberman will almost certainly be a choice for Secretary of State, Defense, or Homeland Security, but it is rather ho-hum at this point.  But if McCain wants to woo disaffected Hillary voters, why mess around with Carly Fiorina, Sarah Palin, or Lieberman?  Why not go straight to the source and float Hillary for one of those three positions because of her experience?  Even if she refuses, McCain will get huge points among her supporters and can make the argument that Obama’s problem is not that he’s a Democrat, but that he’s unqualified for the position.

McCain can also appeal to moderates and independents by picking popular Republicans (or former Republicans) that can’t be his VP: Rudy Giuliani for Homeland Security or Attorney General; Arnold Schwarzeneggar for Energy Secretary; Mike Bloomberg as Treasury Secretary. 

McCain should forego an early VP pick and just drop these choices until the convention.  This creates build-up for the number-two slot.  With the long shots already in his cabinet, he needs to do something to appease his conservative base, no?  The assumption is his VP will be someone like Mitt Romney.

Lead the press speculation this way and then make a choice that does that while accentuating his maverick image, which is the only thing currently keeping him afloat: Chuck Hagel.

Don’t spit it out just yet.  Chew on it for a moment.  It seems impossible especially with buzz that Hagel might be Obama’s VP.  But remember that the situation was very similar in 2004, when McCain reversed course and endorsed Bush.  McCain was a huge factor in Bush’s reelection because of that reversal.  Would the race havebeen as close as it was if Bush dropped Cheney and ran with McCain in 2004?

McCain has the chance to find out in 2008.  For the moment, look beyond Hagel’s main flaw.  He’s an extremely popular conservative Republican from the Midwest, whose positions on social issues and finances appease the Republican base.  But he also has a reputation as a Maverick that appeals to independents and crossover Democrats.  He’s 61, a Vietnam Vet, and unquestionably qualified to be President.  If everything else was equal, he’d be a perfect choice for VP.

The only problem is Hagel’s extreme opposition to the Iraq War, while McCain is its most ardent supporter.  Yet I think this is the best reason to choose Hagel: What better way for McCain to break from Bush than to choose not only Bush’s biggest critic in his own party, but to choose someone who openly disagrees with McCain’s own biggest issue.  This allows McCain to reframe his biggest tie to Bush: he may share Bush’s position, but he is more open-minded about it.  This is a far better unity ticket than choosing someone like Lieberman, because it shows that McCain is willing to listen to both sides on big issues and even those he feels most passionately about.

With this pick, McCain can say that the country needs to come together, recognize that both sides have valid opinions and work together to find a solution.  It allows McCain to solve the biggest obstacle of his candidacy: sure the Surge worked, but now what?  What does victory in Iraq look like?  The Iraq issue has blown up in McCain’s face as the successful Surge has allowed the Iraqis to feel safe enough to endorse Obama’s 16-month timetable for withdrawal.  Choosing Hagel allows McCain to reframe the debate again, take credit for the success of the Surge, and say that now that the situation is improved, both sides of the issue need to come together and find the best solution to finishing the Iraq war.